The BPIF has released its latest Printing Outlook study of the health of the industry in Q3, showing that while printers experienced a more profitable period, levels did not match their predictions and margins were squeezed by rising costs.

The figures showed print prices remained in the doldrums and price rises in paper, ink and energy continued to squeeze margins. So while greater volumes were producing better profits, that would change should they fall back.

 
BPIF public affairs advisor Andy Brown said: "Profit improvements are volume driven. But because of the erosions in margin should those volumes drop the industry will be in a more difficult position than it has been for a long time."

He added that while paper price rises had appeared to slow, it still didn't reflect the fall in pulp prices. "Paper averages 40% of the cost of print, more in some cases. So paper is the big one, and you have to ask when will paper prices stop rising."

The study showed a +12% balance on increasing production levels compared with the previous quarter, well below the +32% forecast, while order levels at a +3% balance were stagnant, again below expectations.

However, this likely reflects a general belief that the country was coming out of recession, which has been hobbled by the eurozone crisis.

Printers also responded that rivals were still selling below costs - 87% reported this as their chief concern followed by rising paper and board prices and access to capital.

Even so, printers better utilised their capacity with nearly half operating at 90% or greater although the bigger change lay in far fewer printers working at below 80% capacity compared to the previous quarter. The story was similar in terms of lead times which crept up, although most striking were the 11% reporting seven month lead times in the quarter, compared to none in the previous period.

There was positive news in terms of employment, with a positive balance of printers taking on more staff (27% against 17% downsizing), while the run up to Christmas has led printers to predict a further staff influx for the remainder of the year.

However printers are still battling prices, with a quarter lowering prices compared to the summer quarter, while just 16% managed to increase prices, although a third expect to be able to do so in the final quarter.

Costs however were relentless with many paying more for paper, ink and energy compared to the previous quarter and further increases expected. This has led to a margin squeeze with almost half reporting lower margins, yet despite this, companies said they were more profitable, with far fewer reporting losses (14%) and more (43%) reporting profits ahead of 6%, and 16% claiming double digit profits.

Worrying for a Drupa year is that 10% of those surveyed have no plans to make investments over the next 12 months. For those that do, improvements in efficiency are the main objective followed by increasing capacity, and while respondents reported access to finance was easing, it was also more expensive.

BPIF research and information manager Kyle Jardine said: "While declining margins have dampened the mood of most respondents, with rising input costs denying printers the full benefits of what should have been a more positive turn of events. The third quarter of this year was nevertheless the fifth out of the past six quarters in which overall growth has been registered.

"Prospects appear brighter still between now and Christmas, with two fifths of our survey respondents predicting a pick up in trade in the final three months of the year, easily offsetting those expecting further slowing. The fourth quarter is normally a busier period and while the projection may be seen as optimistic given the current trend, it mirrors the actual reading for the final quarter of last year." 

The survey polled 75 companies representing more than 12,000 staff and ￡1.5bn in turnover.